Events

[2020-11-13] The 28th International Defense Academic Seminar

By 2020년 11월 18일 No Comments
Source: Yonhap News

On November 13th 2020, Chairman Ban was invited to speak at the 28th International Defense Seminar. He spoke on North Korea’s denuclearization, in ties with Korea-U.S. relations.

Chairman Ban started his speech on the new President-elect, Joe Biden, and complimented his leadership method that included emphasized and partnership. “Biden’s election will serve as an opportunity to reestablish ‘Americanism’ through abnormal normalization from a global perspective. The United States will return to multilateralism and restore global leadership by strengthening ties with allies and restoring cooperation with allies.” He said.

Furthermore, Chairman Ban spoke on some tips the Korean Government could follow for the denuclearization and North Korea, and strengthening Korea-U.S. relations. “First, we need to establish a clear definition of ‘denuclearization of North Korea’ and share it with the Biden administration. Second, our government must persuade North Korea not to engage in such a ‘strategic provocation. Third, we should refrain from saying or doing anything that harms the spirit of the Korea-U.S. alliance. Fourth, through bipartisan cooperation in politics, we need to establish a wide human network with Biden’s foreign counterparts. Fifth, we should eliminate political impatience in pushing ahead with these things and establish Korea-U.S. relations from a national unity perspective.” He said.

Chairman Ban concluded his speech emphasizing that “a bipartisan strategy for North Korea seems to be a more difficult task than dismantling the North’s nuclear weapons program.”

If you would like to read the full article, please visit Yonhap News Agency’s website.

 

Below is the translated version of Chairman Ban’s speech at the 28th International Defense Seminar.

Congratulations for inviting me to your precious place.

Cho Won-gun, former Commander of Air Force Operations and Chairman of the Military Association, Lim Ho-young, former Deputy Commander of the Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command and Chairman of the Military Association, and In Seong-hwan, President of the Joint Military University.

Thank you.

This seminar will be held under the theme “2020 International Security Environment Assessment and Korea’s Survival Strategy.” It’s just the end of the U.S. presidential election, which has a huge impact on the international security order, and I don’t think it can be timelier. Of course, the organizers must have been wise to set a date like this in the first place after seeing the results of the U.S. election.

As the leaders of the most powerful nations in the international security order have changed, it would be imperative to look into President-elect Joe Biden’s security initiative. In fact, I sent a congratulatory letter to Biden last Monday, asking him to return to the Paris climate change agreement as soon as possible, restore multilateralism and strengthen the Korea-U.S. alliance. Of course, as the President-elect has already promised in the election process, my request is only agreement and encouragement to the promise.

Many of the world’s citizens, as well as American citizens, are cheering for Biden’s election. I think this is because of President Trump’s extreme division, rude politics, and the serious damage to the international political order caused by unilateral U.S. priority.

The international diplomatic stage is a stage where national interests collide, so all kinds of conflicts, fights, and confrontations occur, but in diplomacy of countries called the “Western Jinyoung,” there were things like dignity, unity, honor, and tolerance. The allies have built an alliance of values beyond an alliance of interests. After the end of the U.N. Cold War, multilateralism represented by the U.N. became an increasing international norm, and the international community gradually moved toward the common good in the midst of human-specific imperfections.

The United States originally conceived the postwar order based on idealism at the end of World War II, and the United Nations was the product of such idealism. There is little room for idealism in the intensifying Cold War order, but many international organizations, including the United Nations, have been the force to keep humanity’s ideals alive for permanent peace, and the United States has been the strongest supporter. But President Trump has destroyed all the ideals and courtesy behind harsh international diplomacy. Of course, other powers have also undermined international norms, but the United States should not take the lead in breaking the ideals and norms that it has managed to develop. Biden is determined to make this right and make America a respected country again. For this reason, I think the world’s citizens have high expectations for him.

I thought we had a lot to learn from Biden’s victory speech in Wilmington, Delaware, on November 8th, local time in the United States. So before I talk about his security initiative, I’d like to share his message of unity with you for a moment. His speech is full of unity from beginning to end.

I promise to become a president who seeks unity, not division, a president who sees United States, and a president who tries to gain the trust of the entire nation. He says he wants to be president to restore the soul of the United States. I suggest that you look at the other person again and listen to them again. We appeal to seeing each other as enemies, and we declare that we are all Americans, not enemies. It’s time to heal in the United States, where countless lives were lost due to COVID-19, in a country divided by hate and divisive politics. “I ran as a proud Democratic candidate, but now I’m going to be the president of the United States. I will do my best for those who voted for me and those who didn’t.” “Let’s end this dark age of demonization.” “The Democrats and Republicans refused to cooperate, not because of any identity we couldn’t control. It was our decision, our choice.” “If you can decide not to cooperate, you can decide to cooperate.” That’s what Biden said.

I think these are the words that our politics should bear in mind. As many of you here know, Arizona, a Republican stronghold, supported Biden in the election because of decades of bipartisan friendship between the late John McCain and Joe Biden, who have long been Arizona Sen. When McCain died of a brain tumor in 2018, Biden delivers a touching speech in remembrance. “We were brothers. “We’ve had a lot of fights,” he said, grieving as if he had lost his real brother. President Trump was not invited to the funeral, even though he was a current Republican. Because he had insulted McCain, one of the greatest patriots, for opposing his course.

Anyway, while McCain and Biden fought tremendously over specific policies, they pursued more noble values as human beings and as Americans, together as comrades. That’s why McCain’s widow, Cindy McCain, declared her official support for Biden in the upcoming presidential election. McCain and Biden’s bipartisan friendship, a friendship that showed politicians that there was something more important than political lines, a friendship that showed politicians should be united in front of the nation. I don’t think we can see this friendship anymore in our politics.

Let’s get to the point. In the meantime, the issue of North Korea’s denuclearization has been pushed out of our priorities due to the COVID-19 and the U.S. presidential elections, but Biden’s election has marked a new turning point. President Moon Jae-in and President Trump had several inter-Korean summits and two U.S.-North Korea Summits but made no progress. Biden will make a difference with a completely different approach from President Trump, and the Kim Jong-un regime will also try to break down the status quo by continuously challenging the new Democratic administration with missile test launches. We may ride the roller coaster from tomorrow.

Biden’s election will serve as an opportunity to reestablish ‘Americanism’ through abnormal normalization from a global perspective. The United States will return to multilateralism and restore global leadership by strengthening ties with allies and restoring cooperation with allies. Biden has already promised to rejoin the Paris climate change convention in the course of the election. It will also rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and stop the process of President Trump’s withdrawal from the WHO. We will also be active in improving relations with our NATO members. Biden says he will also hold a global democracy summit in his first year in office. However, the economy advocates “national interest-centeredness,” and while opposing trade barriers that run counter to multilateralism, it will keep its own industrial protection path constant.

Biden will also contribute greatly to the stability of the international order by increasing the ‘predictability’ of the international community. He prefers the so-called ‘Bottom-Up’ approach, which values procedures and processes. Therefore, it will go through consultation and coordination with allies, and stakeholders in dealing with international issues, which is expected to ease the uncertainty of international relations. Predictability will also increase in public relations. Of course, the existing stance of actively checking China’s rise and establishing a global supply chain that does not depend on China will be maintained. But in global issues such as climate change, denuclearization, and global health security, we can expect U.S.-China cooperation.

Biden’s election will serve as an opportunity for us to increase the weight and value of the Korea-U.S. alliance and expand the scope of friendship and cooperation. While Trump has raised concerns with his commercial-based allies and his “love letter” with Kim Jong-un, Biden is a trusted leader in that he is familiar with the geopolitical situation on the Korean Peninsula and respects the value of the Korea-U.S. alliance with his experience as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

In fact, Biden described the Korea-U.S. alliance as a “blood alliance” in his article in the Korean newspaper Hope for Our Better Future on October 29. President Trump’s call for a five-fold increase in defense contributions also indirectly shows his position on the issue. In the future, we can expect a “common sense compromise” based on the spirit of blood alliance, not on “commercial transactions.” Biden also rated Korea as a model country for overcoming COVID-19. As the situation in the United States is very difficult, new cooperation and solidarity may be achieved in this area.

However, there may be considerable differences and conflicts in the issue of the transfer of wartime operational control, as Biden will put the existing view of the U.S. defense management system first. Moon Jae-in’s government is pointing out the implementation of pledges for restitution by 2022, but Trump administration had a lukewarm ‘conditions have been satisfied’ response. Biden’s administration also won’t be much different. Rather than fulfilling its pledge, our government should use flexibility in terms of North Korea’s denuclearization and national security to push for a recovery without “conflict and confusion.”

The Biden administration will also demand a “coordinated and agreed” approach between the Republic of Korea and the United States regarding North Korea’s denuclearization. President Trump did it in a top-down manner, focusing on ‘political symbolism’ when dealing with the issue. Biden, on the other hand, will push for denuclearization of North Korea, placing importance on ‘diplomatic effectiveness’ in a Bottom-up manner. So there will be no spontaneous surprises. Biden says there will be no summit talks with Kim Jong-un unless he already promises to cut back on nuclear weapons.

If the declaration of the end of the war, which our government is pushing for, is not linked to denuclearization, we will face opposition from the United States. In general, it is estimated that North Korea currently has at least 20 nuclear warheads and up to 60 nuclear warheads. It is estimated to have about 650 ballistic missiles. It is hard to understand the rational reasons for insisting on the declaration of the end of the war or peace rather than trying to overcome this situation. In terms of the ROK-U.S. joint military drills, Biden will not approach them from a cost perspective, unlike President Trump.

Biden will not lose his flexibility while pursuing a principled foreign policy. Therefore, rather than pursuing the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program through a single big deal, a change in strategy can be expected, such as easing some sanctions if the North gives up some of its nuclear weapons as an intermediate step in realizing its ultimate goal. In this case, South Korea and the U.S. will once again be drawn into North Korea’s Salami tactics, which will require a lot of attention.
Now that the roller coaster for North Korea’s denuclearization begins again, we must stay alert and make new preparations. First of all, you should always remember that this is a two-man, three-legged race between Korea and the United States. We are the parties to the game that tie one foot each with the United States. You should not act as a mediator as you have done so far. Strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance and self-reliance is a minimum premise. I would like to give our government five tips on future denuclearization efforts.

First, we need to establish a clear definition of ‘denuclearization of North Korea’ and share it with the Biden administration. Second, North Korea tends to carry out provocations when the U.S. administration changes. Again, we may test-fire a large ICBM and an SLBM unveiled on October 10. Our government must persuade North Korea not to engage in such a ‘strategic provocation. Third, we should refrain from saying or doing anything that harms the spirit of the Korea-U.S. alliance. It is hard to understand that key government officials’ disparaging remarks about the Korea-U.S. alliance have lost their sense of balance as people’s lives and property. Fourth, through bipartisan cooperation in politics, we need to establish a wide human network with Biden’s foreign counterparts. Fifth, we should eliminate political impatience in pushing ahead with these things and establish Korea-U.S. relations from a national unity perspective.

Biden’s election will mark a new turning point in the North Korean nuclear issue, but history has proven that the dismantlement of the North’s nuclear weapons program is a daunting task. As a long-time Foreign Ministry official, I know this very well. Since returning to Korea in 2017, I have argued that the most important thing is to establish a bipartisan strategy against North Korea, which does not change much even if the government is replaced whenever there is an opportunity. However, establishing a bipartisan strategy for North Korea seems to be a more difficult task than dismantling the North’s nuclear weapons program. What should we do?

 

Thank you for listening for a long time.